Bill Gross has founded a lot of start-ups, and incubated many others — and he got curious about why some succeeded and others failed. So he gathered data from hundreds of companies, his own and other people's, and ranked each company on five key factors. He found one factor that stands out from the others — and surprised even him.
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> Ideas are like opinions. Everyone has them but a random few become financially successful.
> Means to financial success are identified in the rear view mirror.
> Build it and they won't necessarily come. Consumers (with money) must exist before production. (Note that 'production' is measured by sales not inventory.)
So... like stock trading, test everything, risk small, see what worked in the past, leverage existing product markets--- evolutionary product development. (e.g. UBER with taxis; AirBnB with hotels and apts; tablets with laptops; laptops with desktops; desktops with minis; minis with M/F)
The video is quite useless in explaining because the motive to find the single most factor are really doesn't make sense. Idea, team, model, funding are so different things from Timing. If you separate them, it just like, how about just waiting it to happen? Or just preparing your work until the right time? or you try to execute to see if this is the right time? It's just like what is the single most factor that makes a good husband? I think people will soon 'tired' of those 'research' to find what 'single factor' the most. This video just merely say that this is just because of 'luck'. But I guess Elizabeth Holmes will not agree.
Great speech. Fast and to the point
Also it proved me right!
I called it luck but true, it’s timing
Great ideas even don’t succeed if the public is not ready for it
Beautifully put, well done.
Bottom line, you need luck in creating a super duper company!
Having built a 7 figure business £3.6m by the age of 26 starting with £0 at the age of 21. I have to 100% agree that timing was a key element to the success.
I’m in property development.
I built it in a good safe market, then lost it all in the globe recession, as I could not develop or sell, as nothing was stacking up!
I’ve since rebuilt even bigger in a flat market, due to learning the process as still having 100% belief in myself and never giving up even when all was lost. Maybe the fight and drive in the leading entrepreneur has a lot to do with it in my opinion.
If I ask someone I’m mentoring now how much they want it and they don’t say 10 out 10 and truly say that they want it 100% and are willing to sacrifice anything for it! Then unless they have luck with hiring the right team to do it for them! Then the odds of success are truly against them!
PS I’ve worked every day this year 31 days straight! 8-8 most days.
That has to be a factor in who is willing to put the work in and who is just a poser or dreamer!
It takes hard work and dedication!
Bill gates use to fall asleep at his desk!
You obviously need more than just hard work. I took huge risks and did many things that people told me were Impossible! I found another way around it. I was 100% determined and solution oriented to find a way.
I just knew in my gut I would make it as well!
The single biggest reason is the NAME for whatever company you start up! No one wants to get in the works with a company that has an extremely unappealing name! That is why you need eatmywords.com to help you create a game changing name!
Thank you for value by experience. He has won and lost and that is an indication he is sharing his first-hand experiences. Over Two million people have watched his blog so he has given a positive value. I am grateful.
I case of Airbnb they concentrated on a problem: trust issues in rental industry, applied Value Proposition on it and integrated it in Disruptive Business Model. Saiying Airbnb would fail in the 1800's or in 1950's is absurde,but of course timing is of the essence ,it's blatantly obvious. Biggest advantage one can have over competition is Disruptive Inovation and Disruptive Business Model and every business analyst will agree on this. For startup's No#1 thing is Business Model Inovation.
Just now AirBnB is changing there business model in attempt to disrupt Tourism industry.
AirBnB's Business Model Canvas ==>> https://youtu.be/WzGhFmiB9G0
Persistence (passion) would be my answer. I have a new startup just launched that I'm extremely passionate about called C'8 - Coordinate, a purely altruistic, free and available to all disaster aid coordination app that I think is a game-changer! And support is greatly appreciated!
What he is saying is, I would say, 90% correct because success also really depends upon the execution. Facebook did not come at an "exact" timing, it came just after friendster and myspace but why it became a success can be attributed to its way of execution. From harvard grads it expanded to other universities, then to [invited] high schoolers and then with some regulations it was made available to the masses. Timing for sure is very very important but execution, creating a proper brand image, having a dedicated but small team and having a meaning (to why are you building this startup), is equally very important.
Webvan was on the bottom row of failures you had. Heh, I lost a lot of money in that company investing in the stock back in 2001 ish. Delivering groceries from the store was a little ahead of its time back then.
The issue with Bill Gross' framework is that its factors are non-exclusive. Employing a skilled team often requires having adequate funding, and a company without a well-defined idea cannot launch. In actuality, timing seems to be a byproduct of how well a company has addressed the other four aspects. To be sure, there are such things as seasons and trends, and many companies accordingly adjust their strategies to increase profits. But the future is largely unpredictable and uncontrollable. Thus, I question how practical Gross' advice truly is.
all he said was that actually, there is no correlation between some of his conditions and success in start-ups and he chooses like really important one ... this means that besides you are good at all this stuff ... you just neeed to be lucky to succeed ... yeah and timing .... its retrospective analysis, people when did their start-ups they had no idea whether it is or isn´t a good time .... you can say just after a few years after or just made up the reason why the timing was good like when he was talking about airbnb .... Scientific? No. Not even useful if you believe what he said ... do you wanna know more on topic of luck in life ? definitely you need to reed Nassim N. Taleb: Fooled by Randomness
Having retrospectively analysed (albeit in a rather subjective way), your hypothesis then has to be tested prospectively (still will be subjective but not prone to observer bias as a result of the "retrospectoscope").
For any business to succeed, it’s important to ensure that marketing is at the heart of the start-up strategy. Marketing is an extensive field that involves a lot of aspects. Nevertheless, your success depends on your strategy you put in place. Marketing involves strategies that introduce a product or service and then promoting it in the best way possible to not only maximize your sales; but also promote the brand or business. For any company to be successful, it’s important that they sell a target figure of products and services which eventually translates into profits. So, without an effective marketing strategy, most businesses would close down.
Anyways, read the below. This might help.
What is successful? In less than 20 years, ROI, or shareholder return won't be the only metric to judge success and failure. By that time it will be perfect timing for businesses with purpose and profit. So, in the end, I guess Bill will be right again.
How does he not realize that "idea" is extremely subjective, also it goes against timing 100%
If I come up with the idea of "the wheel" today, is that a bad idea?
If you give it a 10 and timing 0, then we can talk
My guess is he'd measure it as a bad idea because of the timing
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